المؤشرات الأخيره على الشركة مثل التداول الكبير بدون تحرك السعر وكميات الشراء الكبيره الأخيرة التي تنفذت كلها قد تكون مؤشرات ايجابيه تدل على انعكاس الترند النازل اللي رافع ضغطي...لكن..
مازالت التحاليل الأساسية التي أقرؤها عن الشركة سيئة جدا ولا تبشر بمستقبل قوي للشركة وهذا أحد التقارير من مؤسسة كورال كاب :
http://www.coralcap.com/Updates/Research Update 6-11-03.pdf
قد يكون التقرير قديم شوي ولكنه يعطيك نظره مستقبليه متشائمه للشركه.
The question then is, what have you got left in ADSX ?
The financial situation of ADSX is dire. In the latest registration statement the company showed cash of approximately $5 million and reported a $26 million loss in the first quarter. The cash flow is actually worse as they added $28.5 million in new payables and other liabilities.
If you add the negative cash flow of ($2.7) to the new liabilities you see that on an operating basis they are backwards another 431 million in the first quarter alone. In
2003 they reported consolidated revenues of $99.6 million and lost $43 million on an operating basis.
More than 50% of revenues are consolidated from the DOC holding which will be reduced to some new level following the share sale required to meet the cash requirement of paying the IBM debt.
Following the new share issuances and another 68.5 million shares to be issued to current and past management before year-end there will be approximately 427 million shares outstanding. If we assume that the company must liquidate (or has already liquidated) some 2.4 million DOC shares to generate cash that will leave them with a shareholding in DOC of approximately 17 million shares with a market value today of about $48.9 million.
If you combine this with the book value of PP & E assets the total book value is about $58.6 million. There is at least $30
million in Non-IBM Credit liabilities on the books that would leave shareholder equity at approximately $28.6 million or approximately $.07 per share. As the company has lost huge amounts of money every year on their other businesses I find no rationale for attaching any value to them and in fact management took a $69 million write off in goodwill last year, which is another way of saying we don’t believe these things are not worth what we paid for them either and can’t justify the value going forward.
Conclusion and recommendation:
The stock is enormously overvalued and will come down sooner or later. Sell or short if you have the capital to maintain margin requirements.
