توقعات بأن يصل سعر برميل النفط الي 250دولار بعد ظهر احصائيات تبين لأول مرة تناقص في الإحتياطي العالمي من النفط
Oil price leaps to year's highPredictions of $250 a barrel on fears for oil reserves, hopes of economic recovery and hedging against weak dollar
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Terry Macalister guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 10 June 2009 20.58 BST Article history
Oil will last for decades, according to BP, but advocates of 'peak oil' believe reserves are dwindling. Photograph: David McNew/Getty Images
The price of oil burst through the $71 a barrel mark today amid revelations that proven reserves had fallen for the first time in 10 years and predictions that the price could eventually hit $250.
The latest high – from lows of $30 only four months ago – came on "I wouldn't be surprised if we're testing $80 in a week or two," said one analyst, while BP's chief executive, Tony Hayward, questioned whether $90 could be the "right" value.
The febrile atmosphere in oil markets was fed by the publication of BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, which showed that the world's proven crude reserves had fallen by 3bn barrels to 1.258tn by 2008 from a revised 1.261tn in 2007.
احصائيات شركة بي بي عن الطاقة العالمية تظهر لأول مرة تراجعا في الإحتياطي العالمي بمقدار 3بليون برميل حيث اصبح حجم الإحتياطي 1.258تريليون في سنة 2008 بعد أن كان 1.261تريليون في سنة 2007.
The drop is partly attributed to a drop in exploration drilling due to the precipitous fall in oil prices last year but also to the end of "easy" oil. Conflict this week in the Amazon and speculation about Arctic drilling underlined how oil companies are pushing into environmentally sensitive places to find new reserves.
Tony Hayward, BP's chief executive, insisted there was enough crude to last 42 years at current consumption levels, roughly the same as last year.
توني هاوارد الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة بيبي يؤكد ان احتياطي البترول الحالي يكفي لمدة 42سنة علي اساس الإستهلاك الحالي
Adherents of "peak oil" – the theory that the maximum rate of oil production has been reached – believe supplies will run out much sooner because of growing demand.
The BP boss said: "Our data confirms that the world has enough proved reserves of oil, natural gas and coal to meet the world's energy needs for decades to come." Higher prices allowed companies to invest in finding further reserves while not choking off demand, he said.
"There is a rational argument to say that somewhere between $60 to $90 a barrel is the right sort of level," he said.
Global oil consumption fell 0.6% to 81.8m barrels a day in 2008, the first decline since 1993 and the largest drop for 27 years. North Sea output dropped 6.3% to its lowest level for three decades.
