هذى قصة سهم فى موقع بريفنق انا شدنى شارت السهم لثلاث سنوات السهم رايح لاسعار ماوصلها من سنتين تقريبا ابي اكتب كلام بريفنق وياريت اهل الانجليزي يعطونا بيت القصيد من الكلام Tibco Software (TIBX): $11.71 -0.21 (-1.8%) Tibco beat earnings estimate by one penny, at $0.09 EPS, and beat revenue estimates with the Q4 revenue coming in at $125.7 million, versus the $118 million estimates. None of this was a surprise to the market, however, as the company now has a five-quarter history of beating estimates. The pattern, which has now occurred in every quarter since the 2003 Q4 (fiscal year ends Nov 30), has been this: 1) Tibco provides guidance for the coming quarter, which is essentially flat earnings and revenue as the current quarter; 2) Tibco then beats earnings and revenue estimates in the current quarter, with higher revenue being the driver for higher earnings; 3) Tibco then "resets" guidance for the next quarter to "flat" earnings and revenue as the just-reported quarter. This pattern is now a little too predictable and certainly is not a secret. We detailed this history when we first profiled Tibco in an Ahead of the Curve column of September 21, 2004, just before Tibco reported its 04Q3 earnings. The stock was then trading at $7.22. Beating revenue and earnings estimates this quarter, therefore, was almost "expected," although we admit that an "expectation to beat estimates" is somewhat of an oxymoron. But it explains why the stock is not moving today on the excellent revenue growth and earnings growth. What is really driving Tibco stock now, we think, is the expectation in the market that Tibco will soon be an acquisition candidate by a larger software company. Tibco's integration tools are used by enterprises to aggregate data from disparate information systems into a common format. The purpose is to roll-up information from various parts of an enterprise into a single application, which may be custom-built or an existing application level business analysis tool. The appealing aspect of Tibco software, to a potential acquirer, is that the Tibco tools are very customizable to the specifics of the customer's system. What this means is that replacing Tibco software, once installed and operational, would be extremely difficult for the enterprise customer. This means that Tibco will not likely see pricing pressure from the customers over time. That means the current high levels of profitability at Tibco can continue for a long time: in short, it can be turned into a cash-cow eventually, if need-be. We think this is the real reason that TIBX has shown a 60% return in just three months since we first profiled in September just before the Q3 report. The actual revenue and earnings growth since before the Q3 report certainly would not justify the valuation increase in that short of a time. A full detailing of how the multiples on TIBX have risen in three months was the subject of the Ahead of the Curve column of December 15. (See the Ahead of the Curve archives to access past articles on TIBX - or use the Briefing.com Search function and select "All Columns"). We do believe that an investment premise based on Tibco's eventual acquisition is both sound and reasonable based on the current stock levels. The company is pricey, which means any premium over current stock prices is likely to be pretty small. But if you jumped on the stock when we first argued for TIBX in September, it is probably worth keeping the position open based on the acquisition candidate. At the very least, if any other integration tools software company becomes an acquisition target in the next couple of months, TIBX will probably jump even higher on the acquisition idea. In the meantime, Tibco is likely to continue the strong revenue and earnings growth that has now been in place for 15 months. Management set guidance for the coming quarter (2005Q1 - ends Feb 28) at just $116-$118 million and earnings at $0.08, both of which are exactly the same as what guidance was for the just-reported Q4 and slightly lower than this quarter's actuals. They will probably beat estimates again next quarter. Remember to act surprised. - Robert V. Green 12:02 ET A.G. Edwards (AGE): 41.93 +0.34:Not that it was a blowout, but AG Edwards beat earnings pretty handily in their report yesterday for a quarter that has been very good to the investment banks. AG Edwards is benefiting from the relative solid performance of the equity market and recent uptick in merger and acquisition activity. Another aspect that has been a driver for the stock has been the continuous rumor that the company is an acquisition target. Those that follow the investment banking industry can tell you that Bank One and AG Edwards were very close to a merger. The Bank One merger with JP Morgan has not slowed down this talk. Jamie Dimon took over Bank One and passed on some high profile acquisitions, including the possible purchase of the Sears credit portfolio that went to his former employers at Citigroup (C). Citigroup paid $32 billion for the portfolio, an amount significantly higher than the $3.18 billion market cap of AG Edwards. Would Dimon be willing to pay up for a company that has seen its stock increase steadily over the last few months? The answer is hard to arrive at, but if it happens it would carry some significant implications. The key idea would be that JP Morgan would be paying for what AG Edwards is known for - its middle market investment banking and strong asset management business. If they are willing to pay up, that would mean that JP Morgan sees a lot of strength coming for those segments; at least enough to justify a price that is substantially higher than it would have been earlier in the summer. The stock has been stronger throughout the last few months and the addition of AG Edwards to the JP Morgan platform would be a wonderful fit. Of course, that has been said for years, and there is no reason to believe that many will not be saying the same thing again in a few months.