Time Magazine Warning:

الموضوع في 'السوق الأمريكي للأوراق الماليه' بواسطة السبيعي2, بتاريخ ‏26 أكتوبر 2005.

  1. السبيعي2

    السبيعي2 عضو نشط

    ‏14 ديسمبر 2003
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    The end of life as we know it begins on Thanksgiving Day 2005
    Excerpt from Time Magazine, October 23 issue:
    It's the End of Oil

    World oil production is about to reach a peak and go into its final decline.

    Lately, several major oil companies seem to have got the message. One of Chevron's ads says the world is currently burning 2 bbl. of oil for every barrel of new oil discovered. ExxonMobil says 1987 was the last year that we found more oil worldwide than we burned.

    Shell reports that it will expand its Canadian oil-sands operations but elsewhere will focus on finding natural gas and not oil. It sounds as though Shell is kissing the oil business goodbye.

    M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist, correctly predicted in 1956 that oil production in the U.S. would peak in the early 1970s--the moment now known as "Hubbert's Peak." I believe world oil production is about to reach a similar peak.

    Finding oil is like fishing in a pond. After several months, you notice that you are not catching as many fish. You could buy an expensive fly rod--new technology. Or you could decide that you have already caught most of the fish in the pond. Although increased oil prices (which ought to spur investment in oil production) and new technology help, they can't work magic. Recent discoveries are modest at best. The oil sands in Canada and Venezuela are extensive, but the Canadian operations to convert the deposits into transportable oil consume large amounts of natural gas, which is in short supply.

    And technology cannot eliminate the difficulty Hubbert identified: the rate of producing oil depends on the fraction of oil that has not yet been produced. In other words, the fewer the fish in the pond, the harder it is to catch one.

    Peak production occurs at the halfway point.

    Based on the available data about new oil fields, there are 2,013 billion barrels of total producible oil. Adding up the oil produced from the birth of the industry until today, we will reach the dreaded 1,006.5-billion-barrel halfway mark late this year.

    For two years, I've been predicting that world oil production would reach its peak on Thanksgiving Day 2005. Today, with high oil prices pushing virtually all oil producers to pull up every barrel they can sweat out of the ground, I think it might happen even earlier.

    --Kenneth Deffeyes

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