إتجاه السوق اليوم الجمعه

[المؤشر]

المؤشرات اليوم توحي بإنخفاض السوق بسبب عدة أخبار سلبيه :

1. شركة SBC Communications لخدمات الإتصالات الهاتفيه ويعمل بها 191 ألف موظف صرحت في نهاية يوم الخميس بانها ستفصل 11 ألف موظف في بداية العام القادم إضافة إلى 10 آلاف موظف تم فصلهم خلال العام الجاري وذلك بسبب الضعف في الإقتصاد مما أثر على المبيعات والأرباح

2. شركة فيليب موريس أكبر مصنع للسجائر حذرت اليوم من تباطؤ في نمو الأرباح بسبب ضعف المبيعات وزيادة تكاليف الدعايه والإعلان بالإضافه لخسارتها قضيه في محكمة كاليفورنيا لصالح مدخن سابق بمبلغ 850 ألف دولار وقد إنهار سعر الشركه يوم أمس 11%

3. تعرضت شركة جنرال إلكتريك GE لخفض تقييم من قبل ليمان بروذرز الذي خفض من التقديرات لإرباح GE لعام 2002 و 2003

4. سيصدر تقرير مزاج المستهلكين consumer sentiment بعد إفتتاح السوق بربع ساعه حيث تشير التوقعات إلى إنخفاض


الناسداك الآن منذ أن تراحع يوم أمس من مستوى 1238 فهو مرشح لمزيد من الإنخفاض حتى 1200 بسبب الأخبار السيئه وسيكون لتقرير مزاج المستهلكين دور كبير في الضغط على الناسداك

 

[الاحمدي]

09:03 ET Procter & Gamble reaffirms Sep qtr and full year guidance (PG) 90.75:
خبر جيد من Pg قد يقف امام سيل الاخبار السلبيه اليوم.

 

[الاحمدي]

Time Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior From
08:30 GDP-Final Q2 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

 

[الاحمدي]

Time Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior From
08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q2 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

 

[الاحمدي]

Live Headline (Up/Downgrades)
27-Sep-02
SBC (SBC)
Brokerage Firm Action From To Old Target New Target
Raymond James Downgrade Outperform Mkt Perform

 

[الاحمدي]

27-Sep-02
09:15 ET Brocade target, estimates cut on worsening IT spending (BRCD) : Morgan Stanley says that IT spending has worsened sequentially from Aug to Sep, and Sep weakness has caused BRCD's Oct qtr to be more back-end loaded than usual; believes that if this softness persists into Oct, then co may have to reassess its FY03 rev/EPS forecast; lowers price target to $15 from $25. Separately, Goldman Sachs cut BRCD's Q4 and FY03 rev/EPS ests in the face of what appears to be an even weaker IT spending environment which in turn is leading to some pushouts in SANs.

 

[الاحمدي]

Live Headline
27-Sep-02
09:21 ET Walt Disney 2003 estimate may be high due to parks weakness - Soundview (DIS) 15.90: Soundview says that the 2003 consensus est of $0.73 may be a bit high, as checks indicate a slight weakening in Parks & Resorts fundamentals over the last month tied to increased political focus on confrontation with Iraq; believes Parks may continue to underperform in an environment marked by geopolitical uncertainty; maintains Neutral rating, ests, and $14 price target.

 

[الاحمدي]

Live Headline
27-Sep-02
09:28 ET Amkor finalizes agreement to sell Anam shares (AMKR) 1.52: Company finalizes agreement to sell 20 mln shares of Anam Semi to South Korea's Dongbu group for roughly $93 mln; apparently half of this amount has already been paid, with $12 mln to be paid next week and the remaining $34 mln in installments over the next two years, according to a Dow Jones report. AMKR up 15% pre-market to 1.75.

 

[الاحمدي]

Live Headline
27-Sep-02
Before Open : No earnings releases scheduled for today... As for guidance: SHW and RINO were on upside... WYE, PLCE, FLS, ROK, MHX, TBC were on downside... PG, LOW, NCEN, VSEA were in-line.

 

[الاحمدي]

Live Headline
27-Sep-02
09:49 ET Michigan sentiment near expectations : The Univ of Michigan's final September consumer sentiment reading was revised to 86.1 from the preliminary 86.2 reading - roughly in line with the 86.0 consensus. Confidence has been slipping in recent months due to stock market declines and rising layoffs, but consumer spending has been resilient nonetheless.

 

[الاحمدي]

Live Headline
27-Sep-02
09:49 ET SBC lower layoffs -- Merrill cuts estimates (SBC) 20.10 -1.80: Merrill Lynch lowering estimates -- takes down FY02E to $2.27 from $2.34; lowers FY03E to $2.23 from $2.39; firm reiterates Neutral rating.

 

[بوفهيد2]

ما شاء الله عليك ياالاحمدي المفروض اسمك برقان جهد مشكور
بغية الكثيريرن هي في الشركات اللي فيها عراش وسط الزخم من الاخبار المتوقعة هذه الايام ولا أظن أن أحد سيجدها أفضل منك في ظل متابعتك الحثيثة للسوق وموفق خير .

 

[الاحمدي]

Live Headline
27-Sep-02
10:29 ET Nasdaq Composite trades tight range to start : Index holding a ten point range early -- look for modest initial resistance at 1216 followed by additional overhead in the area of 1222 and 1228. To the downside, watch for initial support at 1212 followed by an additional floor at 1206.

 

[الاحمدي]

27-Sep-02
09:55 ET Delta Air Lines announces more layoffs, Q4 charge (DAL) 11.50: -- Update -- Company says Sep qtr revenue will be unchanged from year-ago - current consensus called for a 1.1% decline - and sees a loss of $350 mln; also sees 1,500 more job cuts and will take a Q4 non-cash charge of about $700-800 mln; finally, DAL has amended credit agreements.

 

[الاحمدي]

Live Headline
27-Sep-02
11:08 ET Semiconductor Index edges towards session highs -- SOX +3.3% :

 

[الاحمدي]

Live Headline
27-Sep-02
Procter & Gamble (PG) 89.38 -1.37: Despite reaffirming Sep qtr and full year guidance before open, stock is trading modestly lower. Also this morning, CIBC Wrld Mkts initiated with Sector Outperform rating and price target of $100, saying co. is strategically well positioned through global scale and distribution capabilities to maintain pricing power in the face of rapidly consolidating U.S. retail industry. Firm thinks PG can meet goals of 4-6% top line growth and double digit EPS grow, driven by renewed focus on core brands, increased emphasis on attractive health and beauty care categories, and significant cost savings.

 

[الاحمدي]

Live Headline
27-Sep-02
11:13 ET Amgen Intraday (AMGN) 44.55 +0.89: -- Technical -- Stock exhibiting relative strength, pulling back slightly off its intraday highs. Look for modest initial resistance at 44.80 followed by additional overhead in the area of 45.80. To the downside, watch for initial support at 44.40 followed by an additional floor at 44.00.

 

[الاحمدي]

Live Headline
27-Sep-02
NVIDIA (NVDA) 8.90 +0.03: NVDA announced yesterday that it was effectively going to give its employees a $66 mln gift by allowing them to swap underwater stock options for common stock. The fact that there was little market reaction to this plan indicates that investors still have a high degree of tolerance for abuse.

In the technology world, stock options are a common and useful tool of compensation, but the popping of the tech bubble left most of these options worthless. The result? Boards of tech companies have sometimes exchanged options with high, pre-crash strike prices for options with strike prices at current depressed levels. This policy has drawn criticism from some shareholders who believe that the whole concept of options creating an incentive to work hard is destroyed if the options are repriced when the stock price falls.

In this NVDA case, however, the gift to employees was much greater, and much less justifiable, than a simple swap of old options for new. The company is actually granting common stock to holders of underwater options, without those option holders having to pay any strike price at all! Let's say you're an NVDA employee with 10,000 options priced at $50. Under this new program, you can swap those options for shares whose value equals the initial 10,000 amount multiplied by $3.20. In this case, that would be $32,000 in stock, or roughly 3,600 shares. The employee would therefore be trading 10,000 virtually worthless options for 3,600 shares valued at $32,000 (less applicable tax withholdings).

NVDA has the nerve to claim that this swap will help "retain and motivate" its employees. NVDA is based in Santa Clara, the heart of the current tech recession. Our guess is that most employees are probably happy just to have a job right now, and to the extent they aren't, handing them this very liquid gift of shares probably makes them more rather than less likely to leave. As for motivating, how is a gift of common stock a more potent motivator than new options with lower strike prices? Half of the shares are eligible for immediate sale, offering little motivational value (25% must be held six months, and the final 25% for one year).

For shareholders, there will be roughly 3% dilution and a charge that will approach $66 mln in the current quarter. Brokerage firm analysts are largely cheering the move this morning, confirming that conflicts of interest are alive and well on Wall Street. CSFB was an outlier, gently chiding the company by noting that while retaining employees was a good thing, the "means enlisted are somewhat counter to shareholder's interests..." NVDA employees are probably nice people and we'd hate to say that they shouldn't get this gift, but if you're a shareholder, you would be justified in asking the company why it's your responsibility to foot the bill. If you don't get an acceptable answer, move on to another investment. - Greg Jones, Briefing.com

 

[الاحمدي]

Live Headline
27-Sep-02
12:49 ET Micron upgraded by Rick Whittington this morning (MU) 13.20 +0.65: Rick Whittington was previously the semi analyst at B of A and is now with the boutique firm American Technology Research. This morning, he upgraded MU to a BUY from Hold citing these factors: 1) signs of seasonally improved PC sales, 2) channel activity for graphics memory, frequently a precursor to main system memory, 3) Taiwan inputs that leading foundries are seeing upped production plans from graphic chip set customers, 4) improved risk/reward for MU (but not the semi sector generally).

 

[الاحمدي]

Live Headline
27-Sep-02
12:56 ET Juniper Networks may get small Verizon deal (JNPR) 4.49 -0.09: Optical networking site Light Reading is reporting that JNPR is close to a deal with Verizon (VZ) for edge routing gear, but that the size and timing of the deal may be a disappointment; the article indicates that the deal might not generate any revenues for JNPR until Q2 2003 and that it might only total $5-10 mln (JNPR annual revenues are expected to exceed $500 mln this year).