Read This Part 3

الموضوع في 'السوق الأمريكي للأوراق الماليه' بواسطة aaljawal, بتاريخ ‏24 أكتوبر 2001.

  1. aaljawal

    aaljawal عضو جديد

    ‏24 سبتمبر 2001
    عدد الإعجابات:

    Last weekend, I wrote about the set-up in the Dow Jones
    Industrial Average ($INDU) and Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X). Unfortunately,
    all did not go as planned.

    I was looking for a rebound in the INDU and NDX this week, but
    that rebound took place a bit too early as measured by price.
    The INDU and NDX both rebounded Monday well above their
    respective support levels that I set forth in the weekend
    column. Meanwhile, both of their daily Stochastics readings
    crossed over and to the upside Tuesday morning. Close, but
    close doesn't make you money. I'll get the next one, just you

    Sentimental Observations

    "There's nothing to fear but fear itself."

    I don't know if President Roosevelt was big on implied volatility,
    but I think he'd be proud of the market's reaction to recent
    reports of anthrax discoveries. Funny thing is that the Market
    Volatility Index (VIX.X) and Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN.X)
    have been falling in the face of perceived fears over anthrax.
    Remember, the market is omniscient, the media is not!

    I'm still weighing whether or not the recent drop-off in put/call
    ratios is a product of October expiration. I think it is. Kind
    of funny how the volatility (fear) measures fall in synch with
    put/call ratios, isn't it? But, I did notice a spike in the
    QQQs' put/call ratio Tuesday...

    The INDU is still on Bull Confirmed - the strongest of point &
    figure buy signals - on its bullish percent chart, although it
    did lose 3 percent Tuesday because of SBC Communication's
    (NYSE:SBC) triple bottom breakdown. Meanwhile, the NYSE
    Composite ($BPNYA) and S&P 500 ($BPSPX.X) bullish percent
    readings climbed higher. Over on the Nasdaq-100 ($BPNDX), it
    remained in Bull Correction mode, which is indicative of longs
    taking profits.

    The ARMS Index (INDEX:TRIN), also known as the TRIN, only
    works at extreme levels. The ARMS Index is not at extreme

    The internals of the market worsened Tuesday, with decliners
    outpacing the advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq markets.
    Also, new lows continued to outpace new highs, but that's
    nothing new. When the new high/new low line makes a significant
    turn, it could indicate the beginning of a new bull market.

    Hey, did anybody notice that S&P commercial traders positioned
    to their most bullish levels of the year last week? I did. I
    wonder if those commercial interests are getting longer this


    Market Volatility

    VIX 33.19
    VXN 63.73


    Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume
    Total 0.58 703,978 408,869
    Equity Only 0.50 645,688 323,581
    OEX 1.62 6,593 10,687
    QQQ 0.89 32,252 28,698


    Bullish Percent Data

    Current Change Status
    NYSE 28 + 1 Bull Alert
    NASDAQ-100 59 + 2 Bull Correction
    DOW 50 - 3 Bull Confirmed
    S&P 500 44 + 1 Bull Alert
    S&P 100 40 - 2 Bull Alert

    Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
    currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
    chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
    below 30 are considered oversold.

    Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long
    Bull Alert - Cautiously long
    Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
    Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long
    Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
    Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


    5-Day Arms Index 1.16
    10-Day Arms Index 1.02
    21-Day Arms Index 1.03
    55-Day Arms Index 1.22

    Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
    are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
    but when the do, they can signal significant market turning


    Advancers Decliners
    NYSE 1522 1591
    NASDAQ 1679 1913

    New Highs New Lows
    NYSE 45 48
    NASDAQ 44 55

    Volume (in millions)
    NYSE 1,314
    NASDAQ 1,817


    Commitments Of Traders Report: 10/16/01

    Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
    and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
    Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade.
    Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
    financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
    correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
    to be wrong.

    S&P 500

    Commercial interests continued to posture to increasingly
    bullish levels last week. While still net bearish, the % of
    open interest is approaching 0. The positioning of small traders
    last week neither confirmed nor refuted what commercial traders
    did, as small traders were relatively flat week-over-week.

    Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI
    10/05/01 365,200 408,567 (43,367) (5.6%)
    10/12/01 369,049 407,804 (38,755) (4.9%)
    10/16/01 378,866 415,289 (36,423) (4.5%)

    Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
    Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,423) - 10/16/01

    Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI
    10/05/01 124,249 73,882 50,367 25.4%
    10/12/01 122,292 74,539 47,753 24.0%
    10/16/01 124,568 73,779 50,789 25.4%

    Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01
    Most bullish reading of the year: 91,122 - 3/06/01


    Commercial traders grew slightly more bullish last week from the
    week ago period as measured by a slight drop in % of open interest
    currently short. Still, they remain decidedly bearish while small
    traders grew more emboldened last week and added about 1,000 long
    positions while short interest dropped among small traders.

    Commercials Long Short Net % of OI
    10/05/01 26,703 37,669 (10,966) (17.0%)
    10/12/01 24,662 38,020 (13,358) (21.4%)
    10/16/01 27,398 40,397 (12,999) (19.2%)

    Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
    Most bullish reading of the year: (1,825) - 1/02/01

    Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI
    10/05/01 10,918 6,804 4,114 23.2%
    10/12/01 11,948 7,012 3,936 20.6%
    10/16/01 12,901 6,893 6,008 30.5%

    Most bearish reading of the year: (1,028) - 1/02/01
    Most bullish reading of the year: 8,460 - 3/13/01


    Commercial traders moved to their most bullish net stance of the
    year last week in the Dow. Meanwhile, small traders eased off
    from their most bearish reading of the year two weeks ago, but
    remained decidedly bearish on the prospects of the Dow.

    Commercials Long Short Net % of OI
    10/05/01 22,755 10,124 12,631 38.3%
    10/12/01 24,873 10,194 14,679 41.7%
    10/16/01 25,402 10,267 15,135 42.5%

    Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
    Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01

    Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI
    10/05/01 4,731 11,868 (7,137) (43.0%)
    10/12/01 3,517 12,294 (8,777) (55.5%)
    10/16/01 4,514 12,104 (7,590) (45.7%)

    Most bearish reading of the year: (8,777) - 10/12/01
    Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01