Ben Stein ومقال صاروخي سيعجب الجميع

الموضوع في 'السوق الأمريكي للأوراق الماليه' بواسطة smart investor, بتاريخ ‏10 يوليو 2007.

  1. smart investor

    smart investor عضو جديد

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    الشخص هذا أثق جدا بمقالاته وتوقعاته لأتجهات السوق

    في المقال المصبوغ بالأحمر كتب صاحب المقال خلال العشر السنوات القادمه سيندم كل من لم يشتري في الأسهم الأمريكيه في هذا الشهر 7 - 2007

    مما يدل على أننا في منعطف طرق بالنسبه للأسعار وأن هذه الأسعار رخيصه جدا ومغريه للشراء بالنسبه للمستثمر

    والله أعلى وأعلم



    A View of the Economy from Abroad
    by Ben Stein
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    Posted on Thursday, July 5, 2007, 12:00AM
    I'm writing this from Frankfurt, Germany. The perspective from my perch here in the financial district at the lush Villa Kennedy Hotel allows me to offer a few bullet-point thoughts on the economy.


    Subordinate Subprime


    First, I'm not at all worried about the stock market despite the recurrent panic about subprime mortgage problems and resistance to some loans by lenders in private equity deals (which used to be called, appropriately, leveraged buyouts, or LBOs).


    Subprime is a small sector of the mortgage market, as I've said before. It might be 15 percent at most. The defaults and delinquencies in this sector might be roughly 15 percent, which makes for a total problem rate of about 2.25 percent of the whole mortgage market.


    If all this goes into foreclosure (which is unlikely), it will realize about 60 percent upon liquidation at the very least. That means the real loss might be about .9 percent, or less than 1 percent. That's a large number, but tiny in the context of the economy.


    How the Economy Rates


    As to the resistance of lenders to lend at low rates on some LBOs, this shows that the loan market is not completely insane. That's a good sign, not a bad one. It would be much more worrisome for the future if lenders wanted to sign up for every deal.


    Besides, again, the effect is tiny in the context of the whole economy. It's a misuse of time and energy for individual investors to worry about private equity players having to pay a small amount more for loans.


    The rise in interest rates is a real worry, if it continues in a big way. If interest rates go up by another two percentage points, the net present value of stock market earnings and dividends would be cruelly cut, and would dent the market seriously.


    But there's no sign of that happening. Domestic interest rates are rising to equilibrate U.S. rates with European rates, and they reflect a strong economy. So these aren't worrisome signs at this point.


    Don't Hit the Panic Button

    The fact is that the economy is booming on a record scale, and profits are superb. There's no reason to panic.


    The market is moved by traders who sell on a dime to make a short-term profit. That's their job. When they do sell and drive prices down, they're not hurting the underlying companies or the future prospects for the economy. In effect, they're putting stocks on sale. That represents an opportunity, not a reason to run.


    I still like the 10- and 20-year prospects for the U.S. economy. There are many threats -- nuclear terrorism, harm to oil supplies, and so on -- but for the next 20 years, we'll probably be able to keep these under control.


    I have no clue whether the market will be higher or lower in a week or a month or a year. But in 10 years, you'll regret it if you didn't buy in July 2007.

    International Involvement
    I've also observed that Europe is booming. The prosperity here in Germany is amazing -- this is a country that's happy and peaceful despite its terrifying past. And the same goes for most of Europe.


    Television advertising here is amazing, too. Commercials encourage you to invest in Angola (yes, Angola); call for the 2014 Winter Olympics to be in South Korea -- with cooperation from North Korea (yes, North Korea); and encourage investment in Russia (yes, Russia). This indicates a world economy that's on fire.


    For you, that means it's time to step up investment in the iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA), the index fund for large companies in Europe, Australasia, and the Far East. Their currencies -- except for the Japanese yen -- are strong, and their profits are good, if not great.


    It's also wise to keep buying iShares' MSCI Emerging Markets index fund (EEM) and the BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADR index fund (ADRE). The developing nations are racing ahead based on minerals or -- an even better source of prosperity -- a hardworking labor force. These are, as I keep saying, plays on the falling dollar and on the future of these countries. Over long periods, it's also money in the bank.


    A Dressing Down on Dressing Down


    Finally, to change the subject, I'm impressed at how badly most Americans dress for work. Even at major banks and law firms I see Americans dressed like small children. How can a client have confidence in people who show up dressed as if they're going to a rock concert? If you were a client, who would you like -- the guy in jeans and sandals or the guy in a nicely tailored suit and well-chosen necktie?

    I was at the US Airways Club at LaGuardia airport a few days ago, and almost all the men there were in suits and ties. Almost all the women were in suits or dresses. They projected a sense of confidence and capability. You can have the same thing after just one visit to Brooks Brothers or J.Press. Don't let the opportunity pass you by -- human beings make decisions with their eyes. Be on the right side of it.

    So, in a word, things are good -- and they can be even better if you dress better. Go for it.

    Ben Stein has no financial interest in the index funds mentioned in this column.

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  2. best

    best عضو نشط

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    والله كلامه تحت المجهر وقاعد أدرسه ...وعالم الأسهم من عجائب الدنيا ...
    [​IMG]
     
  3. wasmi_6

    wasmi_6 عضو مميز

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    ما هي السيره الذاتيه لهذا الرجل ؟؟؟؟؟

    اول مره اسمع فيه !!!!!!:rolleyes:
     
  4. متداول اسلامي

    متداول اسلامي عضو مميز

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    في الميتاستوك
    بارك الله فيك على متابعة كلامه ونقله لنا

    وانا كذلك احترم مقالاته جدا ولو اني افهم فقط 1% من مقالاته :) لكني اعتقد انها كافيه على مستواي الحمدلله

    Ben Stein

    Ben Stein is a lawyer, economist, and commentator on finance (and a well-known actor and Hollywood personality).

    He served as an economist at the U.S. Department of Commerce. He has been a longtime contributor to Barron's and a columnist and editorial writer for The Wall Street Journal. He has also written extensively about finance for New York magazine and The Washington Post.

    In addition to writing for Yahoo! Finance, he currently writes a biweekly column on economics and finance for The New York Times and appears weekly on the Fox News network commenting on finance and economics.

    He is the author of several personal finance books, including "How to Ruin Your Financial Life," "Moneypower: How to Make Inflation Make You Rich," "Financial Passages," and -- with Phil DeMuth -- the best sellers "Yes, You Can Time the Market," "Yes, You Can Be a Successful Income Investor," and the forthcoming "Yes, You Can Still Retire Comfortably." He grew up in Silver Spring, Md. His father was Herbert Stein, the well known economist. He graduated from Columbia University in New York City in 1966 with honors in economics. He studied law and economics at Yale from 1967 to 1970 and graduated from Yale Law School as valedictorian in 1970.


    للمزيد تفضل
    http://www.benstein.com/stein2.html
     

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  5. متداول اسلامي

    متداول اسلامي عضو مميز

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    بعض مقالاته
    Here are some articles written by Ben. This is in no way a complete
    collection of his work, but it's all that is online.

    CBS Sunday Morning Commentary:

    06/10/2007 - Why Should I Care?

    05/27/2007 - Blanche Dubois Was Right

    03/18/2007 - Economy

    02/18/2007 - Rich Get Richer While War Rages On

    01/28/2007 - Bush is Not All Bad

    12/31/2006 - Remembering President Ford

    11/26/2006 - America the Beautiful

    10/29/2006 - Bush and Iraq

    10/08/2006 - Is Foley That Big A Deal?

    3/5/2006 - Retirement and Baby Boomers

    01/22/2006 - Oil

    12/18/2005 - Christmas

    11/27/2005 - Thanksgiving

    06/26/2005 - Religion and Politics

    05/08/2005 - Mother's Day

    01/09/2005 - Wal-Mart

    11/28/2004 - Retirement Planning

    10/31/2004 - George W. Bush

    10/10/2004 - Col. Dale Denman, Jr.

    7/4/2004 - The Real Stars

    Father's Day

    US Forces in Iraq

    Yahoo! - How Not to Ruin Your Life:

    2007:

    Time Flies When You're Unprepared

    Playing Politics at the Pump

    A Few Lessons From the Road

    Simple Pleasures Include Financial Security

    How to Have a Business Conversation

    Six Key Principles of Saving for Retirement

    The Long and Short of Down-Market *********

    Keeping Your Cool in a Shaky Market

    To Get Rich, Just Follow the Instructions

    A Well-Oiled Defense

    A Home Truth About Real Estate *********

    ********* Strategies for the New Year

    2006:

    Success is All in a Day's Work

    A Season for Peace of Mind

    Lessons from an Economic Maestro

    A Formula for Long-Term Happiness

    ********* for the Real Payoff

    The Art of (Killing) the Deal

    What to Do When a Boom Goes Bust

    Signed, Sealed, Delivered, It's Yours

    A Lifetime of Perfect Summer Days

    Storm Warnings: What Katrina Taught Us

    Do I Hear Cannons? Must Be Time to Buy

    The Best Investment You'll Ever Make

    Your Golden Years Don't Have to be Tarnished

    Wise Words for Getting Ahead in Your Career

    How to Succeed in Hollywood -- and Anywhere Else

    After Enron, Corporate Wrongdoing Still Thrives

    High Oil Prices: Don't Shoot the Messengers

    Work Adds Shine to Your Golden Years

    The Cruel Truth About Retirement

    Three Big Mistakes in Retirement Planning

    Who's To Blame for High Oil and Gas Prices?

    Standards of Life in the Future: Think Grim

    Trade with China: More Gain than Pain for Americans

    Living Hand to Mouth -- and Barely Getting By

    Income That Lasts as Long as You Need It

    A Retirement Portfolio with Staying Power

    2005:

    When *********, Profit from Serenity

    Want Big Returns? Think Small

    China: Friend or Foe?

    Cement, Steel, and Stocks

    I Love You Alan Greenspan, But...

    A Model Portfolio for Weathering Retirement

    The Early Bird Gets the Nest Egg

    The Cure for Interesting Times? Money

    American Spectator - Ben Stein's Diary:

    July/August 2006 - On the Road Again

    October 2005 - Unshared Sacrifice

    June 2005 - Desert Stars

    February 2005 - Scared at 60

    December 2004/January 2005 - Special Deliverance

    September 2004 - Swimming to Arkansas

    May 2004 - American Salute

    April 2004 - Going Places

    October 2003 - Preserving the Civil War

    August/September 2003 - Spiders with Tenure

    May/June 2002

    June 2001 - Defining Moments

    May 2001 - Shock Shock

    April 2001 - Hooked on Power

    March 2001 - Our New Plumbing

    November 2000 - Austin Power

    American Spectator - Other:

    Stupak's Stupidity

    Bush Much Greater

    Sharpton in the Morning

    Terror in our Midst

    Gratitude is Wealth

    Terribly Exciting

    The Lynching of the President

    I Smell a Borat

    A Christmas Day of Peace

    A Scary Russian Bear

    Dinner with the Bushes

    Dollar Signs at Ground Zero

    Pedophile Nation

    Foley in Perspective

    Hypocrisy, Democrat Style

    A Few More Little Facts

    How to Lose to Terrorists

    America!

    Out of Disproportion

    A Precious Morning

    Eretz Israel

    How Was Your Weekend?

    Defending the Flag

    Why I Am a Republican

    Let's Stand for Something

    Keeping the Faith

    Memorial Day Diary

    They Did God's Work

    What You Need to Know

    Stop the Scapegoating

    On This Good Friday

    Greetings from Rancho Mirage

    Better People Than I Am

    Missed Tributes

    We're Losing

    Oil is Well

    Saints in Armor

    Oil, Oil, Oil

    Good Morning, 2006

    A Patriot Acts

    As Thanksgiving Approaches

    American Miracle

    A Big Lie Put to Rest

    More on Katrina

    Get Off His Back

    Tommy Turns 18

    Bulletin from Ben

    Mr. Lonely

    Father's Day Perspectives

    Recruitment Improvement

    A New Yorker Kind of Guy

    The Cost of the War on Terrorism

    I Don't Feel for Felt

    Deep Throat and Genocide

    Reign DeLay

    The Truth About DeLay

    American Death Sentence

    Simply Terrifying

    Visiting Hours

    One of Them

    How Was Your Day?

    Gratitude

    Christmas Peace

    How to Ace an Exam

    Col. Denman's Luger

    We Shall Overcome

    The Land of $800 Haircuts

    Homage to the Eastern Front

    Happy Bush Country

    Riefenstahl Madness

    Democrats Taste Blood

    Go To Yale

    The Sharpie in Sharpton

    Malibu Mystery Theater



    Tonight, I Get to Be Honored by Sitting with Heroes

    Vitamin C Taught Me a Dance That Involves Shaking My Thighs

    I Had Hardly Ever Met Such an Interesting Psychological Case as Jenna Jameson

    I Still Have Yet to Meet Anyone in a Major Position of Power Who Is as Kind and Giving as Norman Lear

    She Seems to Have No Idea I Am a Major Star, but That's All Right

    Can You Even Imagine How Great It Is to Be a Star of Jennifer Aniston's Level?

    Tim Allen is Every Bit as Cheerful as Jay Leno is Sharp and Dour

    I Hate That the Conventions Are Over -- They've Been A Lot More Fun Than Working

    This Is the Civil, Good-Natured America of a Frank Capra Movie

    I Sure Love Sarah Jessica, but I Just Do Not Get Sex and the City

    We Stars All Wave to One Another As If We Know Each Other

    Little Did I Dream I Would Ever Be Walking on a Red Carpet with Daytime TV Stars

    I Would Pay His Mortgage for Drew Carey to Be My Next-Door Neighbor

    It's All About Hollywood -- New York Was the Center of the Universe Until L.A. Came Along

    The Handmaiden of All This Money Is Fear of What Happens If It Goes Away

    All Women in L.A. Look Unhappy All the Time

    Regis Has the Best Job and the Best Pay; I Have the Hardest and the Worst

    That's the Difference Between Doing Things and Writing About Things

    They'd Been Lied to So Many Times, They No Longer Believed Anyone

    I Didn't Even Know There Was a Dawson

    I Want to Be Like Grace Kelly in Rear Window

    Being a Star Would Not Have Stopped a Bullet

    1999:

    In Washington, There are Nice People, but What Can They Do for Me or Maya?

    In Hollywood, the Smart Get Defeated and Lose Hope, While the Stupid Become Billionaires

    Stars Are Nice, and Fame Pays the Mortgage, but Puppy Is Life

    I Just Work on Maggie's Farm Like the Rest of the Talk-Show Hosts

    I Never, Ever Experience a True Miasma of Meaninglessness Until I Came Back to Hollywood
     
  6. smart investor

    smart investor عضو جديد

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    ما شاء الله عليك يا متداول كفيت ووفيت

    جبت سيرة الي خلفوه :p


    شكلك شغال بالمباحث :cool:


    بس صراحة زادت الثقه عندي في هذا المحلل بعد ما قرأت سيرته


    تخرج مع مرتبة الشرف في الأقتصاد من جامعة كولومبيا ودرس القانون والأقتصاد في جامعة يال وهي من أقوى الجامعات في أمريكا.

    والآن له تقريبا 40 سنة خبرة في هذا العلم.

    جزاك الله خير يا متداول


    تحياتي وتقديري لك
     
  7. هرقل

    هرقل عضو جديد

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    السؤال اللي يطرح نفسه ،،، أي أسهم البني ولا جميع الاسهم ؟؟؟
    :confused:
     
  8. Bokandar79

    Bokandar79 عضو نشط

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    انت طرحه وشوف الباجي
     
  9. Bokandar79

    Bokandar79 عضو نشط

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    سمارت مواضيعه جباره وانا من اشد المعجبين بالمواضيع اللي يطرحها مما يدل على الثقافه والمعلومات اللي يكتسبها هالشخص

    روووح ربنا يوفقك ويفتح بوشك الرزق...
     
  10. smart investor

    smart investor عضو جديد

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    ويوفقك يالحبيب


    شاكر لك هذا الأطراء الذي لا أستحقه


    الله يرزقنا وياكم وجميع المسلمين