Weekly Market Outlook & Commentary for the period 29/4/2002 - 3/5/2002

Short Selling

Swing Trader
4 مايو 2002
For the week, the Dow gained 95.91 points to finish at 10006.63, while the Nasdaq fell 50.86 points to close at 1613.03. The S&P dropped 2.92 points to end at 1073.14. Volume was on the high side relative to what we have seen this year.

The story of the week was the Nasdaq's continued slide through critical support levels. Despite a nice rally on Tuesday, the Nasdaq still lost over 3%, which put it as its lowest level in 2002. The selling was quite broad-based in nature, as just about every sector lost significant ground. Most notably, semiconductors shares finally broke down (they were the last pocket of strength within the tech sector). The SOX index actually closed below its key support level of 500. There really was no catalyst for the selling in tech shares to speak of however. We feel that investors are finally starting to realize how expensive many of these names are given the group's lack of visibility moving forward. Take note, the Nasdaq really does not have much in the way of support until its low from September of 2001.

Blue chip shares, on the other hand, were able to rebound after a few down weeks. It has been quite apparent that money from the beaten up tech shares continues to flow into blue chip names which look more reasonable from a valuation standpoint. The Dow was able to finish above its psychological support level of 10000 which is always a positive. Moreover, if not for the tech components that make up the Dow, it would have been a much better week for the index. All in all, the Dow's performance this week was a step in the right direction.

As far as market moving events go, Cisco's earnings report on Tuesday should set the tone for the week. Let's face it, the street is still quite focused on how the tech sector is doing and Cisco is one of the bellwethers for the group. If Cisco is able to make some sort of positive comments about the future it could help the Nasdaq get out of its current funk.

All right then, that's it.