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الموضوع في 'السوق الأمريكي للأوراق الماليه' بواسطة aaljawal, بتاريخ ‏28 أكتوبر 2001.

  1. aaljawal

    aaljawal عضو جديد

    ‏24 سبتمبر 2001
    عدد الإعجابات:
    WE 10-26 WE 10-19 WE 10-12 WE 10-7
    DOW 9545.17 +341.06 9204.11 -140.05 9344.16 +224.39 +272.56
    Nasdaq 1768.96 + 97.65 1671.31 - 32.09 1703.40 + 98.10 +106.50
    S&P-100 567.98 + 14.18 553.80 - 6.98 560.78 + 11.40 + 16.28
    S&P-500 1104.61 + 31.13 1073.48 - 18.17 1091.65 + 20.27 + 30.44
    W5000 10185.53 +290.64 9894.89 -154.23 10049.12 +212.01 +274.18
    RUT 438.65 + 12.95 425.70 - 2.89 428.59 + 13.62 + 10.10
    TRAN 2247.58 + 73.30 2174.28 - 60.45 2234.73 + 25.31 + 15.43
    VIX 30.53 - 5.31 35.84 - .61 36.45 + 1.79 - .53
    VXN 56.91 - 12.37 69.28 + 3.30 65.98 + 2.63 - 1.84
    TRIN 0.87 1.19 1.08 1.14
    TICK +828 +342 +283 +290
    Put/Call .53 .80 .76 .96

    Market Wrap

    To The Moon?

    That's where most market analysts are predicting price action will
    go. I didn't hear a single person on CNBC nor read any in the news
    talking about pullbacks, support, over-extended or any bearish
    words like that. Nope... all I heard is how this market shows most
    incredible strength and those left on the sidelines are feeling
    like they've missed the boat.

    Suits me fine: I'll just catch the next ship heading North as
    there is a never-ending supply of vehicles moving up & down the
    charts. But it seems like most other investors right now are in
    full chase mode and heck, maybe they should be for all I know. But
    the fact is I've chased what seemed to be runaway markets too many
    times in my career and regretted catching them soon after.

    If you're wondering what the near-term future holds, so am I.

    The Dow is in a clear ascending channel the past four weeks. That
    is a steep ascent and the steeper a line of support is, the
    weaker. Not much backing & filling of lower levels yet after the
    V-bottom from 9/21.

    Daily charts show the struggle posed near its 9450 area of
    resistance but stochastic values are still rising. If the Dow can
    close above 9500 I think the next stop is 9850 area, another
    sturdy measure of former resistance as well.

    Same view for the SPX, with its sights set on the 1125 zone once
    Friday's highs are managed to clear. Stochastic values tell us
    that the bulk of this current move is likely behind instead of
    ahead. In usual topping fashion, the VIX is plunging along with
    put/call ratios as the majority of market players relax and get
    comfy with the idea that all is well.

    Care to guess what usually happens then?

    The Banking/Financial sector is largest single SPX component now.
    A look at this sector shows room to the upside still exists with
    the 850 area next resistance on a breakout of the current channel.
    However, that is indeed a four-week bear flag and we could see it
    break lower or at least test the lower trendline soon.

    Daily chart is already overbought and consolidating in a wedge.
    I'd look for sideways to lower action in this sector for now.

    HealthCare is flat-out weak. Price action broke a neutral weekly
    wedge the past two weeks but threatens to fall back within and 750
    support would be the next logical stop. Daily chart stochastics
    are trending down even as price action continues to rise, a very
    bearish sign of divergence as well.

    These are the two biggest components of the SPX and each have
    provided stellar gains this year compared to most. Wonder if any
    fund managers might shift out of them next week to lock in gains
    for allocation or window-dressing purposes? What might that do to
    the SPX index they reside in as its biggest 1-2 punch?

    The NDX still looks fine, albeit in the latter stages of this
    current move. Weekly chart shows bullish stochastics and a budding
    breakout from the month's-long wedge. Daily charts show price
    action climbing a very steep ascending trendline and overbought
    stochastic values, so I'm not inclined to chase the QQQ from
    current levels right now due to that. Feel free to do so if you
    must, but I'll pass!

    I can see room for the upside still and know for a fact that these
    oscillators can stay pinned in overbought extreme for some time
    while price action trends higher. Just because stochastic values
    reach overbought extreme does not mean they will immediately
    reverse and roll back down in bearish fashion. But eventually they
    will, and that is likely to be our next significant move across
    the board.

    I do not think we will touch or break 9/21 lows until at least
    next spring if at all, but these markets will not go up from here
    to new highs without filling in some space below us. A falling VIX
    and put/call ratios turning bearish are further proof that markets
    are getting complacent during turbulent times.

    It's Happening Again!
    Market bulls frustrated with reality of horrendous earnings and a
    persistent market recession that Warren Buffett warns may linger
    for years now vent their denial by snapping up sectors with fuzzy
    math as a basis. Biotech stocks have led the Nasdaq for quite some
    time as momentum players seek remaining vestiges where valuations
    cannot be easily quantified. Each time an analyst even burps that
    sounds like they mean semis have upside room to run that sector
    gets ramped +5% in one day. Hot money must find somewhere to play.

    Secondly, market bulls are shrugging off bad news as another
    catalyst for further rate cuts ahead. Further cuts? How much lower
    can rates go from 2.75 that will make a difference to the economy
    nine consecutive cuts otherwise cannot?

    Folks, this is not the stuff long-term bull markets are built
    upon. It's the same exact story we witnessed from late 1998 to
    early 2000 when Greenspan & Co. pumped free money into the Big
    Bubble and history is trying to repeat itself this soon. The only
    people jawboning an economic recovery in sight are the same tired
    bunch who drove followers to destitution from the first market

    Where are all the CEOs giving clear guidance for 2002, other than
    those already warning? Why is Buffett growing ever more bearish as
    the market continues to rally? Has he gone completely daft? Are
    long-term investors to believe CNBC non-trading reporters instead
    who've grown giggly after canceling their Prozac prescriptions?

    I don't know. But mantra of "The bottom is in for sure, for sure"
    is not how I'm banking my retirement future. If that's true,
    there's plenty of time to jump in as the Dow gains +2,500 more
    points from here to break all-time highs and beyond.

    Recovery May Take A Decade
    Why do many market pros believe it will take until 2010 or beyond
    to shake off the malingering angst of this historical crash? One
    reason is our Fed policy to prevent forest fires by setting
    controlled burns to smooth the inevitable.

    Greenspan & Co. have been desperately propping up dying markets by
    pumping massive liquidity into the system for artificial stimulus.
    Their only hope now in full panic mode is to spur consumers into
    continued spending until the overall economy catches up. Seems
    like a sound thing to do... keeping our economy from crashing all
    at once but all it does is guarantee numerous smaller crashes
    after false takeoffs.

    Right now we have money pouring into equities because it must go
    somewhere and fixed income vehicles are pigs at this time. Many of
    those recipients are companies who will not survive long term and
    ramped up stock prices will crash once more. Overall valuations
    are at historical highs as earnings fall faster than prices.

    Speaking of earnings, those fiscal reports most companies release
    these days are nothing short of scandalous. A close relative of
    mine is partner in a CPA firm that specializes in mergers and
    acquisitions. A jaded veteran of dissecting balance sheets, he
    laughs when we talk about "pro forma" profits and loss, one-time
    write offs and dozens of other shams the average momentum trader
    swallows hook, line, sinker, tackle box and bass boat. After all,
    CNBC says WXYZ company beat the street by a penny... let's buy!
    Click it in there before someone else does!!!

    If my relative's CPA firm filed an earnings report like too many
    companies did this quarter they'd be audited, jailed or both. But
    companies like Enron and many others emerge unscathed for months,
    years or forever while duping innocent investors purposely