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24 سبتمبر 2001
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168
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#1
The Dow managed to tack on +341 points while the Nasdaq squeezed
out a respectable +97. While these numbers may not be as large as
investors would like we need to realize that there have already
been some great moves in the last few weeks. The Dow has posted
a +18% gain since the Sept-21st low of 8062 and the Nasdaq is now
up +27.5% since the low of 1387. These moves are larger than most
entire years and they occurred in the last four weeks. Don't
complain that the Nasdaq lost -6 points on Friday. It was just
profit taking after a very nice run!
After the great run described above we are now on our own and at
the mercy of the markets. Confused? Earnings are over for all
practical purposes. There will continue to be a trickle all the
way into late November but the lions share of the S&P companies
have all reported. There are some who feel that these earnings
gave us a boost out of the depths. The reasoning is that the bar
was set so low it would be hard for any company to miss the estimates.
Sorry folks, some managed to do it anyway. Those who beat the
lowered bar were not rewarded in general. There were some but
they were the exceptions. Regardless of your feelings about the
impact to the markets by this earning season, the impact is over.

We are now watching carefully as next week looms ahead of us.
The few companies that will announce are not expected to move
the markets. Instead traders will start looking at economic news
much more carefully as we get closer to the Nov-6th Fed meeting.
Will they or won't they? Zero, +25 or +50 basis points? Reports
that will impact that decision include the Consumer Confidence
on Tuesday and 3Q GDP on Wednesday. The week is loaded with
economic news and analysts are fairly confident that the Fed
will drop rates by another 25 points. The common idea is that
the supply of bullets is running low and they need to ration
those that are left. You can make more small cuts than large
ones and even if they are not making a difference on the surface
the continued press is positive. The Fed will probably try to
choose their shots carefully and we can expect the public
appearances and statements to increase as they try to talk the
economy back into growth mode.
 
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