الموضوع في 'السوق الأمريكي للأوراق الماليه' بواسطة aaljawal, بتاريخ ‏28 أكتوبر 2001.

  1. aaljawal

    aaljawal عضو جديد

    ‏24 سبتمبر 2001
    عدد الإعجابات:
    The wild card on our side is now the mutual fund community.
    Historically the last five days of October are used for end of
    year window dressing. There is a flurry of activity and most
    selling is already out of the way. This coming week is reserved
    for buying winners as a sales tool for fund shoppers. Many funds
    have October as a year end and this provides the incentive. Also
    historically the best six months of the ********* year begins
    Nov-1st and many investors have made fortunes by using the
    strategy of buying in Nov and selling in late spring.

    While you may not subscribe to this theory it does exist. However
    the January effect was once a valid investment tool as well. That
    strategy has gone the way of all prior repeatable trends. Once
    they are commonly known traders try to beat the trend by buying
    earlier and selling sooner and the trend disappears. The January
    effect moved into late December then early December and then into
    the Thanksgiving week. Recently it has faded from view as buying
    and selling became more spread out. The end of October trend could
    be the next sacrificial offering. As traders buy earlier and earlier
    to capitalize there is nobody left to buy during the last week.
    Funds are not stupid, at least most of them. They plot these trends
    and attempt to profit from them. Those that wanted to profit from
    the last week of October would have bought over the last two weeks
    and they would sell into any window dressing next week. If the
    window dressing does not appear then funds who had speculated on
    it would still be forced to sell rather than hold stocks they had
    no long term desire to own.

    For traders the markets have been very exciting to watch. Lower
    openings with acceleration into the close. Poetry in motion!
    Volume on Friday was even decent with the NYSE trading over 1.2
    billion shares and the Nasdaq nearing 2 billion. Decent, not
    strong. Advancers beat decliners even on the Nasdaq which lost
    ground on profit taking on a couple big caps. The comment was
    heard several times last week that happy hour had been moved
    up to 3:pM in the markets as the last hour has produced some
    strong moves. From a technical and sentiment standpoint the
    markets have been performing extremely well. Investors are
    counting on fiscal stimulus, tax cuts and increased government
    spending to bolster the economy and keep it from crashing. The
    GDP is estimated to be reported next week at -0.8% but nobody
    appears to care that the recession will be confirmed. They are
    looking 6-12 months into the future and counting on the rate
    cuts to provide long term growth again. Historically once in
    a recession the markets tend to do very well over the next 24
    months and investors are taking that bet. It is the decline
    into a recession that crashes markets and we have already seen
    that chapter of this movie.

    Investors are so positive that earnings will improve shortly
    that they have ignored the continuing anthrax news and weak
    economic data. It is tough to fight the tape when it powers
    through all the bad news we have had over the last several
    weeks. This bullishness has a catch. The VIX closed at another
    post attack low of 30.53 and lost over five points for the week.
    The VXN is now at pre-attack levels and could break under 50
    next week. Granted the monstrous volatility we have had over
    the last several weeks has created havoc with bid/ask spreads
    and increased premium prices, the threat of it collapsing is
    also real. When everyone lines up on the buyers side in the
    markets there is nobody left to buy. Once the current buyers
    are fully invested they need new buyers to push the prices up
    to the next level. If there are no buyers ready to pay higher
    prices then the rally will fail. Falling volatility means that
    nobody is buying puts to protect their positions because they
    do not expect the prices to fall. Great if it happens but
    Murphy is still alive and well.