الأخ بريد الكتروني سبق أن توقعت أنت يا أخي بارتفاع أسهم شركة Hal ووضعت تحليلا مقتضبا لذلك ولكنه معقول (طبعا باجتهاد منك جزيت خيرا وبدون مسئولية) وقد راودتني نفسي بشرائها طوال الأيام الماضية. لكن الحمدلله أنني لم أجزم بشرائها.. من قراءتي لتوقعاتك فيها أكاد أجزم أنك اشتريت فيها لكن أتمنى من الله أنك لم تشتر فأنت أخ عزيز يبذل النصيحة ويجتهد فيها.. وقد انهار سعر الشركة اليوم إلى النصف تقريبا. هذا إن دل على شيء فإنما يدل على خطورة التركيز على سهم معين أو عدم وضع stop losses مهما كان سعر السهم ثابتا على مدى )range) أو سعر معين لفترة طويلة فقد ينهار فجأة كما حدث لسينا أو هذا السهم. News 12/07 17:57 Halliburton Shares Fall 42% After Asbestos Verdict (Update5) By John Rega Washington, Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Halliburton Co. shares fell 42 percent as the largest oilfield services company lost a $30 million asbestos-exposure verdict, the latest of three recent losses, and was downgraded by analysts. Dallas-based Halliburton's shares fell $8.85 today to $12, down 67 percent this year. The shares earlier touched $10.94, their low since April 1991. Halliburton bonds also fell today. The verdict by a Baltimore jury Wednesday follows $122 million of recent judgments in two other states. Analysts said investors are growing concerned that asbestos judgments against Halliburton will mount as they have at other big companies, such as Owens Corning, which were pushed into bankruptcy. ``The $30 million just smells terrible, and it looks like they're wide open,'' said Robert Trace, an analyst at Hibernia Southeast Capital Inc. ``When was the last time you heard of a large company in an asbestos case that ever ended?'' Vice President Dick Cheney, while Halliburton chief executive in 1998, engineered the acquisition of Dresser Industries Inc., which has become the linchpin of Halliburton's asbestos troubles. Cheney was defense secretary under President George H.W. Bush the last time Halliburton stock traded this low. Downgrades Halliburton disclosed the $30 million jury award in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission today. UBS Warburg's James H. Stone downgraded Halliburton stock to ``hold'' from ``strong buy'' this morning, followed by other reductions from stock and bond analysts. The SEC filing said the Baltimore case was brought by five people, who claimed exposure to asbestos from products of Harbison- Walker Refractories Co., formerly owned by Dresser. The $30 million award represents Dresser's portion of the verdict naming multiple defendants. Dresser spun off Harbison-Walker in 1992. Dresser was acquired by Halliburton in 1998 for $6.2 billion under Cheney. The mounting asbestos claims against Dresser don't reflect a failure of due diligence in the purchase, said Halliburton Chief Financial Officer Douglas Foshee. While the latest jury award was ``certainly'' beyond expectations, Foshee said, Halliburton expects to overturn it on appeal as it has other cases. ``We think this is a dramatic overreaction,'' Foshee said of the stock decline. He said the verdict did not change the company's business or its stated exposure to asbestos lawsuits. `Well Insured' Trace, the Hibernia analyst, said that while Halliburton is ``well insured'' for a $30 million verdict, the case raises the specter that more claimants are coming forward and judgments could mount. ``I think this is going to hit Halliburton for some time,'' Trace said. Dresser was ordered to pay $100.7 million for similar claims from a Texas court Nov. 29, following a $21.3 million verdict handed down by a Mississippi court in October. ``In every case, we think we have extremely strong defenses,'' Halliburton's Foshee said. ``All these cases will be appealed.'' Foshee said Halliburton will not follow the fate of other companies forced into bankruptcy by asbestos litigation because it refuses to settle cases with large awards. ``We are going to defend ourselves vigorously,'' he said. Bankruptcies Companies that filed bankruptcy over asbestos claims this year include engine seals manufacturer Federal-Mogul Corp., wallboard maker USG Corp., and chemicals producer W.R. Grace & Co. They followed last year's bankruptcy filings by Armstrong Holdings Inc., North America's biggest maker of vinyl flooring, and Owens Corning, the biggest U.S. maker of building insulation. Halliburton's fall today weighed on stocks of other manufacturing companies considered at risk of asbestos litigation. Georgia-Pacific Corp. fell $4.80 or 14 percent to $29.65. Cooper Industries Inc. dropped $6.25, 15 percent, to $35.75. Goodrich Corp. fell $1.90 or 7.3 percent to $24. Forest Wheeler Ltd. was off 44 cents or 9.1 percent to $4.40. Salomon Smith Barney analyst Geoff Kieburtz cut his rating on Halliburton to ``neutral'' from ``buy'' and sliced his target price to $20 from $36. Jeffries & Co. analysts Asit Sen and Ken Geren issued a notice urging investors to ``stay cautious.'' The news also weighed on Halliburton bonds. Halliburton's 6 percent coupon notes maturing in 2006 fell almost 17 cents on the dollar to 83 cents from 99.6 cents earlier today, traders said. That pushed the yield up to almost 11 percent, a level typically associated with junk-rated debt, from 6.1 percent. Egan-Jones Ratings Co. downgraded Halliburton to ``BBB-'' from ``A-.'' The firm's report today said, ``We have yet to see any firm with significant asbestos liability successfully climb out of the water.'' Lawsuits Sean Egan, managing director at the rating firm, said the ```BBB-'' debt rating, the lowest rung of investment grade, jeopardizes Halliburton's ability to borrow in the commercial paper market. Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's both put Halliburton on notice of a possible downgrade today. Halliburton said in its Nov. 8 quarterly report to the SEC that 340,000 asbestos lawsuits have been filed against the company and subsidiaries since 1976. A Dec. 3 filing said the company faced 146,000 open asbestos claims as of Sept. 30, plus 120,000 cases brought against Harbison-Walker after its spinoff that also name Dresser as a defendant. Foshee said Halliburton has settled about 193,000 cases for roughly $750 each on average, or $200 to $250 net of insurance. He added the number of new claims against the company fell in the third quarter versus the two previous quarters. ``We have a substantial amount of insurance,'' the CFO said, declining to put a figure on the amount of Halliburton's coverage. Halliburton's last quarterly SEC filing estimated its liability in the cases at $125 million, net of insurance, based on its average settlement cost and the number of outstanding claims. ``If it had changed materially (because of the Baltimore case), we probably would be reporting it,'' Foshee said today.