investment summAry
In what follows, we begin by pointing to the excellent price performance of Mabanee shares-up 69% since 1 July 2006. This is even
more impressive given the negative performance of most regional markets. When compared to the Kuwait real estate sector, the results
are more enticing still (see section titled “relAtive PerformAnce of mAbAnee shAre”).
We have carried out a detailed fundamental analysis of Mabanee future projects. Among other things, it has a grand site of 395,000
sq m in Al-Rai Area with access from the Fifth Ring Road. Avenues Mall and its Extension (total 187,000 sq m.) began bringing a
trickle of rental income in November 2006 but will not be fully completed and let before February 2008. Thus, within one year, Mabanee will
become the real estate company with the largest reoccurring income in Kuwait. Moreover, that rental revenue stream (including income
incidental to leases) is estimated to reach about KD 96 million per year by 2010, when its present projects will become fully developed
and operational (see section titled “mAbAnee ProjecteD Profit & loss”).
We estimate that by 2010 Mabanee’s earnings per share will be KD 0.199 excluding capital gains, etc. Based on present
market valuations Mabanee would be valued at KD 5.8 per share in 2010 (excluding the cash dividend of 150 fils/share for that
year). Furthermore, at a price of KD 5.8/share and given the current price of KD 0.860 /share, such an investment would provide a hefty
compounded internal rate of return to investors of 63% per year (including cash dividends) over the next four years, equivalent
to a simple average return 149% per year (see section titled “mAbAnee shAre vAluAtion”).
As more investors become aware of this opportunity, depending on the materialization of certain assumptions, we expect there should be rapid rise in the share to around KD 4.1 in 2008. The share also appears enticing on several technical grounds that should become clear shortly. It is likely that Mabanee share will be the best performing share in Kuwait.
The most enticing aspect about this investment for long-term investors is that it represents high return at moderate risk; the current price
of 860 fils/share represents a tiny PE of 4.3 times 2010 earnings.
At times, like in early 2006, investment requires caution and we were on record cautioning the Kuwaiti public at the beginning of 2006 and
urging them to reduce their risk in the local market by cashing some of their profit. At other times like now following a meltdown of regional
securities markets, investment requires the courage of a lion because many investors have been burnt and they have a long memory.
Moreover, success is never certain.
We hope you will enjoy reading about Mabanee and, wish you great success.
هذا الرابط يبين لك قائمة الارباح والخسائر (الدخل) ل المباني في 3 سنوات القادمة
http://www.orient.com.kw/arabic/mabanee.pdf:D