مجموعه اسهم
عضو نشط
- التسجيل
- 18 يونيو 2009
- المشاركات
- 259
The typical business cycle can last as long as 10 years or more. It is typically represented by several stages.
In the recovery stage, there is still a large gap between output and capacity. Bond yields are bottoming and stocks often surge. Taking risk (cyclical and risky stocks, high yield bonds) tends to offer above-average rewards.
In the early upswing, the economy experiences robust growth without causing inflation because output is still below capacity. As the capacity utilization improves, so does profitability. Short rates begin to rise, though long-term rates remain stable.
In the later stages of the upswing, the output gap closes and overheating becomes a danger. Inflation can pick up, resulting in rising interest rates and stock market volatility.
In a slowdown, the slowing economy becomes sensitive to potential shocks. Interest rates are peaking, and interest-sensitive stocks tend to perform well.
In a recession, declining GDP leads to falling short-term interest rates and bond yields. The stock market bottoms out and often starts to rise well ahead of the business cycle
recovery
Stage 1: Slowing growth rates or early recession. Interest rates start to fall and bonds rally.
Stage 2: Business cycle trough. Stocks begin to rally.
Stage 3: Late recession and early recovery. Commodities begin to rally.
Stage 4: Early recovery. Interest rates trough and bonds peak.
Stage 5: Cycle peak. Stocks peak.
Stage 6: Slowing growth, commodities peak
يا جماعه احنا الحين في اول مرحله ومر علينا سنه وما خلصنا منها لحد الحين
In the recovery stage, there is still a large gap between output and capacity. Bond yields are bottoming and stocks often surge. Taking risk (cyclical and risky stocks, high yield bonds) tends to offer above-average rewards.
In the early upswing, the economy experiences robust growth without causing inflation because output is still below capacity. As the capacity utilization improves, so does profitability. Short rates begin to rise, though long-term rates remain stable.
In the later stages of the upswing, the output gap closes and overheating becomes a danger. Inflation can pick up, resulting in rising interest rates and stock market volatility.
In a slowdown, the slowing economy becomes sensitive to potential shocks. Interest rates are peaking, and interest-sensitive stocks tend to perform well.
In a recession, declining GDP leads to falling short-term interest rates and bond yields. The stock market bottoms out and often starts to rise well ahead of the business cycle
recovery
Stage 1: Slowing growth rates or early recession. Interest rates start to fall and bonds rally.
Stage 2: Business cycle trough. Stocks begin to rally.
Stage 3: Late recession and early recovery. Commodities begin to rally.
Stage 4: Early recovery. Interest rates trough and bonds peak.
Stage 5: Cycle peak. Stocks peak.
Stage 6: Slowing growth, commodities peak
يا جماعه احنا الحين في اول مرحله ومر علينا سنه وما خلصنا منها لحد الحين
