الموضوع في 'السوق الأمريكي للأوراق الماليه' بواسطة السبيعي2, بتاريخ 25 مارس 2006.
سهمين يجي منهم أساسيا روعة فنيا أبو يوسف يقولكم:d
وسهم صغير يستاهل يكون في المحفظة
هلا ابو صالح
اولا السهمين ما ادري اذا عدوا فلتر ابو هاني ولا لا
اما فنيا فالاول واضح فنيا وحلو وخليتني افكر فيه
هدفه على الويكلي 36
الستوب لوز اغلاق ديلي تحت 16.6
اما الثاني ما عجبني تذبذبه حاد نوعا ما وما عطاني باترن واضح
حتى هذا ما عجبني ابو صالح
بالنسبة لي لاأهتم بالفني على الإطلاق مع إحترامي للجميع وتقديري لأهمية التحليل الفني فأنا شغلي كله مع الأساسي وهو لا ينفع للمضاربه لأنني لاأحب هذا النوع من التدوال ولا يناسبني
(zolt في شهر 8 الماضي لم تكن فنيا ممتازة وتم إقتناصها على 8.8 بناء على التحليل الأساسي فقط وامس كانت على 23 بس)
اللي طافته Gna يلحق على Sim
توصية لأهل الأساسي
AGGRESSIVE GROWTH BUY LIST
Alvarion (ALVR) -- Buy Under $10
Brigham Exploration (BEXP) -- Buy Under $10
Connacher Oil and Gas (CLL.TO) -- Buy Under $5
Distributed Energy Systems (DESC) -- Buy Under $7.50
EMCORE (EMKR) -- Buy Under $11
eResearchTechnology (ERES) -- Buy Under $18
Evergreen Solar (ESLR) -- Buy Under $15
Gasco (GSX) -- Buy Under $7
Merge Technologies (MRGE) -- Buy Under $18
Natural Gas Services Group (NGS) -- Buy Under $22
Silicon Image (SIMG) -- Buy Under $12
BALLAST GROWTH BUY LIST
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) -- Buy Under $24
Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) -- Buy Under $32
Silicon Motion (SIMO) -- Buy Under $16
USEC Inc. (USU) -- Buy Under $12.50
BALLAST INCOME BUY LIST
Advantage Energy Income Fund -- Buy Under $22
Eaton Vance Limited Duration Income Fund (EVV) -- Buy Under $17.50
Flaherty & Crumrine PFD Inc. (PFD) -- Buy Under $18
Frontline Ltd. (FRO) -- Buy Under $40
Harvest Energy Trust (HTE) -- Buy Under $33
LEGACY BUY LIST
Insmed (INSM) -- Buy Under $2.50
Northfield Labs (NFLD) -- Buy Under $13
BUY LIST NEWS
ENERGY CONVERSION DEVICES (ENER)
Energy Conversion Devices has selected Greenville, Mich., as the location of its third Ovonic solar cell manufacturing plant, which is expected to be operational in 2007. The project will create up to 563 jobs, including 200 directly by the company, within the next five years, and is part of an expansion plan to increase manufacturing capacity to 300 megawatts (MW) by 2010.
The incentive package approved by the State of Michigan and the City of Greenville persuaded ECD Ovonics to construct the plant there, and could bring five more plants and up to 1,000 additional jobs to the state.
OUR TAKE: Long term, ENER is incredibly well positioned. Most of us are up more than 100% in the stock with long-term gains, and with all the new ChangeWaves we want to ride here, ENER may be a source of funds for us. I'm working on a new valuation, so stay tuned.
EVERGREEN SOLAR (ESLR)
Evergreen Solar's president and CEO Richard M. Feldt has been named the 2005 Cleantech Leader of the Year by Cleantech Venture Network, a membership organization bringing insight, opportunities and relationships to investors, entrepreneurs and service providers interested in clean technology. The Cleantech Leader of the Year is awarded to an industry professional who has demonstrated exceptional leadership in adding credibility or resources to the cleantech industry.
Under Feldt's leadership the past two years, Evergreen Solar has increased its revenues by more than 370% from $9.3 million in 2003 to more than $44 million in 2005. Through its EverQ joint venture, the company is now in the process of constructing a new 30 MW manufacturing plant in Thalheim, Germany, that will serve as an additional catalyst for its growth in the years ahead.
In other news, shares of Evergreen Solar were down this week after the company's primary supplier of granular silicon, supplied in part by MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) fell far short. MEMC previously agreed to supply Evergreen with 90 metric tons of granular silicon, but in January said it did not intend to ship most of the remaining balance of 53 metric tons.
FORDING CANADIAN COAL TRUST (FDG)
Fording Canadian Coal Trust announced its first-quarter cash distribution of $1.40 (Canadian) per unit. This distribution reflects a continuation of 2005 coal year prices into the first quarter of 2006, as well as forecast coal sales volumes of approximately 5 million tonnes in the quarter.
In addition, the Trust announced that Elk Valley Coal has completed approximately 80% of its annual price negotiations with its coal customers. If the remainder of the contracts are settled on similar terms, the average coal price for the 2006 coal year beginning April 1, 2006, is forecast to be approximately $109 per tonne. The weighted average price of 2006 calendar year coal sales is expected to be approximately $113 per tonne, up from $99 per tonne in 2005.
"We're pleased with the 2006 coal year prices, which remain at near record levels," said Jim Popowich, president. "On a less-positive note, our first-quarter sales volumes will be lower than forecast because of high inventory levels at our customers' plants and some substitution of hard coking coal with lower-priced coals due to widening price differentials. However, steel prices in many regions appear to be rising, which may be a positive development for metallurgical coal demand later in the year. Overall, 2006 sales are expected to be between 22 million and 25 million tonnes, depending on the global demand for steel."
OUR TAKE: This means distributions look to stay in the $5 range. I'm re-doing valuation metrics on FDG as well.
Insmed announced that in its 10K filed for the year ended Dec. 31, 2005, the company's auditor had modified their audit opinion due to a going concern uncertainty, as the company's ability to continue as a going concern at the time was dependent upon its ability to raise capital through securities offerings, debt financing and partnerships, and use these sources of capital to fund operations.
Subsequent to the filing of the 10K, the company was successful in raising $42.8 million in its public offering on March 15, 2006, which, together with its current cash on hand, the company believes is sufficient to cover its operational needs at least through the second quarter of 2007.
OUR TAKE: This "going concern" language is standard CYA for accounting firms. This gives Insmed enough time to find a partner and get another $35 million-$40 million to extend their drug to the bigger indications.
MERGE TECHNOLOGIES (MRGE)
Merge Technologies and members of its management team are being targeted by several lawsuits seeking class-action status claiming violations of securities laws. The lawsuits come after Merge announced on March 17 that it expects to report "material weaknesses" related to its internal control over financial reporting, and that second and third-quarter earnings reports for 2005 are unreliable.
Three firms filed shareholder lawsuits against Merge, claiming that members of Merge's management team violated securities laws by issuing "materially false and misleading statements" by claiming that the Cedara merger was successful.
In other news, the company said it received an official notification from Nasdaq that it is no longer in compliance with the market's rules and that its shares face delisting because it has not yet filed its Form 10K annual report for 2005. The company delayed filing an annual report pending completion of an audit of financial results, under which it expects to restate some earnings to include a restatement of tax expense related to its acquisition of Cedara.
Merge has requested a hearing before a Nasdaq Listing Qualifications Panel for continued listing on the Nasdaq Stock Market. No action will be taken to delist Merge's common stock until the panel has completed its review.
OUR TAKE: Like I said last week, MRGE got the usual flurry of shareholder lawsuits and a delisting notice from Nasdaq. The updated information from MRGE will come in plenty of time to prevent delisting, and if we sold every stock we own that has or had a shareholder lawsuit, we would own only a few stocks.
NORTHFIELD LABS (NFLD)
Northfield Labs' Chairman and CEO, Steven A. Gould, M.D., briefed Senate Finance Committee staff members on Wednesday about the company's clinical experience with PolyHeme. In particular, Dr. Gould reviewed the current Pivotal Phase III trial, which is being conducted at Level I trauma centers across the U.S. He was accompanied by Ernest E. Moore, M.D., Chief of Surgery and Trauma Services, Denver Health Medical Center, who is the lead investigator for the study. Dr. Moore discussed the need for a red cell substitute, his extensive clinical experience with PolyHeme, and his research into the immunomodulatory effects of blood in the early care of the trauma patient.
OUR TAKE: Hopefully this will end the witch hunt for NFLD we talked about Feb. 22.
PENGROWTH ENERGY TRUST (PGH)
Pengrowth Energy Trust has confirmed its April 15, 2006, cash distribution of 25 cents (Canadian) per trust unit. The ex-distribution date is March 29, 2006, and will be payable to all unitholders who hold Class A or Class B trust units on the record date of March 31, 2006.
An industry report issued by Synergy Research Group, affirmed Sonus' leadership position in the Japanese market for service provider VOIP equipment for Q4 2005, as well as for the entire year 2005. For the full year 2005, Sonus led the market with a 36.1% market share position, more than double any other equipment provider. Sonus also accounted for approximately 76% of the high-density gateway market and more than 61% of the total gateway market in 2005.
Sonus' success in Japan is driven by deployments with many of Japan's largest service providers, which are among the first major operators around the world to initiate large scale replacement of their legacy switching infrastructures and aggressively migrate to all-IP networks.
"In 2005, the total market for VOIP solutions in Japan continued to grow, and Sonus continued to leverage its early leadership position to increase its foothold in this important country," said Jeremy Duke, president and CEO of Synergy Research Group. "Sonus' presence in Japan is unmatched by any other equipment provider and the company has succeeded in deploying some of the Japan's most advanced IP-based networks."
OUR TAKE: While this is good news, we need to see profit and similar results outside of Japan, or we will move on soon.