اهلين اخي الكريم المؤشر
Updated: 31-Jul-06 08:23 ET
08:23 ET
Slow Morning Today, Busy Week Ahead:
It is a quiet start to what will be a busy week. Stock futures suggest a lower open. That is a reaction to the strong gains last week more than the news today.
Continued tensions in the Middle East are getting some of the blame for the poor tone this morning. Oil prices are up a bit and holding near $73.50 a barrel. But it is hard to believe that the market was expecting much good news on the geopolitical front to develop over the weekend.
There are no economic releases yet this morning. The Chicago PMI manufacturing survey will be out at 10:00 ET. The real fireworks will come with the core PCE inflation data tomorrow and the July employment data on Friday.
There are only a couple of earnings reports of note. Humana and ArvinMentor had very nice reports. That won't move the market, however. Wal-Mart said that July same-store sales will be at the upper end of their forecast range, but still a tepid 2.4%.
The obsession for traders this week is likely to be how the economic releases affect the outlook for the Fed policy decision on August 8. Currently, fed funds futures are pricing in a 32% chance of a rate hike. If the core PCE deflator comes in at 0.3% for June, however, that may go up and the stock market will take a hit. If the core PCE comes in at 0.1%, it will be a boost to stocks.
The employment data on Friday is also critical. Expectations are for a gain of 125,000 to 150,000 in payrolls. The increases the past three months have been 92,000 and 121,000. Anything near 100,000 won't alter expectations for Fed policy. The hourly earnings figure in the employment data will also be closely watched. It has been 0.6%, 0.1%, and 0.5% the past three months. Wage increases are somewhat inflationary, although productivity gains offset the impact.
Sentiment clearly improved last week. There is more optimism about the longer term outlook. Interest rates are near their peak, whether the Fed moves on August 8 or not. Economic growth has slowed in a manner that suggests a successful soft landing (for more on this, see today's Big Picture column). Earnings growth remains impressive. If inflation starts to ease, the fundamentals are well aligned for market gains by year-end. -- Dick Green, Briefing.com.
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غدا بمشيئة الله تعالى 1/8 سيصدر تقرير مقياس التضخم PCE وفي حالة ان يكون الرقم 3% فاننا سنتوقع ارتفاع لمعدل سعر الفائدة في الاجتماع القادم 8/8 وفي حالة ان يكون الرقم 1% ستكون ردة فعل الاسواق ايجابيه جدا وستتجه انظار الاسواق الى الاجتماع القادم بكل ايجابيه .
كما سيصدر يوم الجمعة بيان التوظيف الذي قد يشكل نوع من الضغط على المصرف الاحتياطي الفدارلي سواء بالايجاب او السلب تجاه رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال الاجتماع القادم Aug 8 .
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من المهم جدا معرفة الرقم الذي سيكون عليه مقياس التضخم لمعرفة اتجاه السوق خلال الفترة القادمة .
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تقبل فائق احترامي وتقديري
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