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1 سبتمبر 2001
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ما رأي خبراء المنتدى بهذا الكلام المخيف :

"Retail Sales In TANK Is NASDAQ 1823.00 Next?" Don't Forget PPI Friday & Consumer Confidence May Just Make March Put Options Worth Something After All?,,"

Good Morning Stock Fans!

I was a tad early, but RIGHT AGAIN nonetheless! Hey If I am sounding cocky remember, I hammer on myself in my mistakes when I make them, and those mistakes are usually just early!

Anyway Retail Sales as I suspected were way under estimates today as they came in at +0.2% vs +0.5% concessus.

That's terrible, and that shows exactly what I have been harping about! DEMAND (the consumer) isn't meeting SUPPLY!

It's that simple!

You can have all the supply you want on non contraction Employment, and ISM indexes, and so on, but with no inflation to push prices higher, and a consumer unwilling to spend a a FED on ice ,, The only thing left is,,,,?

LOWER PRICES!!

And that's what we are seeing today!

I suspect Friday's PPI will be sad, and Consumer Confidence will continue to drop ,, that means earnings can't recover!

Too much supply again! ,,,,

Double Dip Recession? Not yet, but it sure is looking more like that will be the case!

Don't worry I'll get BULLISH again when this Q ends on March 28, 2002 as I said I would ,, TILL then!

This NASDAQ may just end up like this!

1696.00 - 1946.00 = 250
1696.00 - 250 = 1446.00!

QQQ's options say
30 is support with Sept 27, 2001 as its low at 27.00 & NASDAQ 1387.00 that means +3.00 over that would about hit the 1450.00-1500.00 area perfectly!

We'll wait AND SEE!

"NASDAQ OUTLOOK TODAY!"

The NASDAQ has al ready lost 1873.20 and now 1851.00-1841.00 looks to be next ,, here's the retracements off of 1696.00-2098.00 year long range.

2098.00 - 31.8%
= 1970.16 (we missed that! 1946.00 high!)

2098.00 - 50%
= 1897.00 (we are under that!)

2098.00- 61.8%
= 1850.00 (that's gone!)

So now we go like this!

1696.00 + 31.8%
= 1823.16! (that's still in tact!)

1696.00 + 50%
= 1897.00 that's gone!

1696.00 + 61.8% =
= 1944.00 (hey 1946.00 high,,JDSU 6.90 61.8% How bout that!

So what's LEFT!

1823.00 ,,and that's near the 20 EMA ,, if the NASDAQ is going bounce today ,,that's the spot!

Till then I say (Consider) GET SHORTY! ,,and I am not talking about the movie!
 
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